A brief of today’s news bulletin:

• Hezbollah, which bragged of 100,000-strong force, accuses Saeed of “inciting sedition”
• Two security realities in Lebanon: A state incapable of governing and a statelet that controls the country and people
• One of Roumieh’s prisoners to Mawlawi: No, Your Excellency, it is not okay

Has the countdown to the Iranian occupation over Lebanon begun? The answer is certainly, Yes, when analyzing the facts and comparing between the past and the present. Syria, for example, which occupied Lebanon from 1991 until 2005, remained steadfast except when most of the Lebanese became against it, and after most political forces began to criticize it, either secretly or openly, and describe its presence in Lebanon as an occupation.

Today the situation looks similar to the situation in 2000, the year that marked the beginning of the collapse of the Syrian occupation. Iran, whether it likes it or not, has become the greatest devil for the Lebanese, and not the US. Hezbollah militia, which is backed by Iran, is also in a difficult and delicate situation with most of the Lebanese.

To go back swiftly to the past. In the year 2000, when Israel withdrew from southern Lebanon, there was almost consensus in Lebanon on the rightness of Hezbollah’s presence and its role in achieving liberation. In 2006, the Israeli “Operation Grapes of Wrath” created a state of sympathy with Hezbollah, not only in Lebanon but throughout most of the Arab world. Today where is the party from the semi-consensus among the Lebanese and Arabs? Internally, Hezbollah is accused of disrupting political life, undermining stability, and creating a mini-state within the state that protects corruption and confiscates the decision of war and peace, but rather all strategic decisions for Lebanon.

On the international and regional level, Hezbollah is accused of exporting all kinds of terrorism and drugs, especially the Captagon, and even exporting wars abroad, as happened in Syria, Yemen and other Arab countries.

For all these and other reasons, Hezbollah appears to be in a defensive and regressive position today. It is trapped into a corner after losing the Lebanese embrace, Arab support, and international sympathy.

How will Hezbollah act after that? Will he return to his Lebanon before it is too late, or will he continue the policy of burying his head in the sand and continue to play his role as an agent of the Iranian occupation of Lebanon?