| 2 December 2023, Saturday |

Dollar slips ahead of US inflation data, still hits month high against yen

The dollar dipped on Wednesday against most major currencies, with the exception of the yen, with investors expecting U.S. inflation data out later in the global day to hold some clue on how soon U.S. interest rates will peak.

Against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index fell 0.07% to 102.05.

The euro was last 0.12% higher at $1.0926 and sterling rose 0.02% to $1.2430, with both currencies some distance away from their one-week lows hit on Monday.

The U.S. inflation data for March is forecast to come in at 5.2% year-on-year, down from 6.0% previously, while core inflation likely ticked higher to 5.6%, according to a Reuters poll of economists.

“It could be the difference between a 25bp hike or pause at the Fed’s next meeting in May,” said Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at City Index, adding that money markets could “quickly revert to reprice a policy pause” if the inflation data comes in softer than expected.

Money markets are pricing in a roughly 74% chance that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points next month, though multiple rate cuts are also being priced in as early as July through to the end of the year.

  • Reuters