| 21 May 2024, Tuesday |

Hariri’s procreative dilemmas

Hariri is in trouble, so his communication with the Saudi supreme leadership has been almost cut short since his famous resignation from Riyadh about three and a half years ago (on November 4, 2017), despite the inclusion of his shuttle tours to Arab and foreign countries since his assignment on October 22, 2020, both the UAE and Qatar. According to Hariri, these tours aimed to break Lebanon’s isolation and prepare the conditions for its economic and financial support at the birth of the government. It seems that the leaders of the Two Holy Mosques will not set such an appointment, before they witness the birth of a government in Lebanon void of any  Hezbollah  representation, which is what Hariri promised the Americans and Europeans before His candidacy, while shortly after, he violated his promise to pledge to the Shiite duo with two “technocrats” ministers that Hezbollah is pleased with, and to agree to the bizarre constitutional heresy that Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri came up with, represented by claiming the exclusive right of the Shiites to the Ministry of Finance under the Taif  agreement (!!!??), then he decided to solve the problem by choosing a Shiite ministry of finance that President Nabih Berri was satisfied with, so he put himself in embarrassment with the internal forces, although a simple extrapolation of the ministers who have succeeded in this ministry since the Taif Agreement proves that the Shiites are among the owners of the least share in this ministry ( 2 Shiite personalities took over the ministry 6 times, 5 Sunni personalities 11 times, and 4 Christian personalities 4 times).

Yes, Hariri is in trouble, because the policy of the French supporter, before the relationship between the two parties waned, proceeded from one failure to another in Lebanon, and the initiative of the French President Emmanuel Macron, following the crime of port bombing, was born free of any defect, but its owner himself distorted its content the day after its birth immediately. As soon as the Hezbollah delegate in Qasr al-Sanawbar objected to the clause of early parliamentary elections, he was quick to withdraw it from circulation, not to mention the mistake of summoning a terrorist-designated party to the table, until it came to Iran that it finally resulted in its rejection of the French role in Lebanon, by not denouncing the words of its Foreign Minister, Muhammad Javad Zarif, in which he called the French President not to interfere in Lebanon’s internal affairs.” The date of Macron’s visit to Saudi Arabia, and the Lebanese issue is one of its most important items, it moves from one postponement to another, in addition to doubts about the effectiveness of the sanctions that France intends to impose on first and second-class personalities in Lebanon, after the failure of its Minister of Foreign Affairs, Jean-YvesLe Drian’s visit  if the European Union countries did not join it, which is not yet available.

Hariri is in trouble because Michel Aoun and the Secretary General of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, who are at the top of the list of men in the axis of resistance in Lebanon, possess the capabilities not to allow the release of the government unless it is “stripped out of its nails” and controls it through the blocking third and the possession of important ministries, otherwise The fatal obstruction is an alternative to this usual and prepared axis when the political crises intensify, such as suspending Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri for two years, and suspending the presidency of the republic for two and a half years, and they will not hesitate for a moment to throw the third presidency into the furnace of obstruction for years in case of necessity, benefiting From the Saudi-Syrian talks to settle the Syrian situation and Iranian influence in the region, as well as the US-Iranian negotiation to settle the nuclear file and the situation in the region, what will put Hariri between the jaws of pincers, either he will withdraw his demands to form it and lose the solid stances he has taken since his assignment in the face of a third Disrupting and permitting important ministries, not to mention provoking a popular resentment against him, this time more than before, as he has engraved in the minds of people, releasing the “monster” of memories of his many concessions, or to keep the deadly stalemate of the country and the economy, which may threaten the worst social and security consequences.

When President Aoun dispatched his advisor Salim Jreissati to the Saudi ambassador in Beirut Walid al-Bukhari to clarify the circumstances of the abuse of a guest on the OTV television channel to Saudi Arabia, Jreissati confirmed Aoun’s readiness in the event that the Lebanese army be strengthened to adopt a defense strategy that confines weapons to the authority, and that he would support any head of government other than Hariri if he has Saudi’s approval , and Bukhari promised Jreissati to bring the matter to the leadership in Riyadh, then will the day come when the accounts of Aoun’s and Riyadh’s fields match?

Let’s wait and see.