Iran continues to violate the sovereignty of many Arab and Gulf countries under various pretexts. It has formed many loyal militias and groups, that move based on Wilayat al-Faqih’s strategy. These militias are interfering in all Arab countries even directly or through the military and logistical support that it provides for groups whose goal is to undermine the structure of states.
Perhaps the missiles fired from Iran towards Erbil, and Tehran’s explicit confession of this matter, constitutes a flagrant violation of Iraq’s air sovereignty, after its militias penetrated the structure and geography of the state. Iraq was the starting point for tampering with the sovereignty of other countries according to systematic plans. In Yemen there are militias affiliated to Iran since more than 10 years, and before the Houthi coup against legitimacy, they were present in areas in Saada governorate and in the Bani Hashish area in Sana’a. The escalating process carried out by the militias to bring down the city of Amran and then Sanaa and the rest of the governorates in early 2014 was implemented according to a plan set by Lebanese military experts affiliated with “Hezbollah”, a special source told Sawt Beirut International.
The most pivotal fields for Iran, according to the source, are Syria and Lebanon, because they acquire great importance in terms of cards that can be used due to its wide influence on their arenas, whether in terms of military presence or political control, that Hezbollah’s Secretary-General hinted at in his speech after Tayouneh’s incident. Nasrallah announced at that time that the party’s fighters are ready, but it was not directed at the “Israeli enemy” but rather at the Lebanese interior.
Today, in light of the Russian attack on Ukraine that affected the entire world, and after the Ukrainians managed to stand firm and inflict heavy losses on the Russian army, despite its use of the latest weapons and aviation. But Russia at the same time, did not drop the cards it owns in more than one region and file, especially the negotiations on the Iranian nuclear file, whose meetings were suspended last week, despite the data that indicated that the signing stage is close.
However, Russia’s conditions, which stands by Iran, put a major obstacle in the way of closing this file. This will be reflected on Tehran, which is waiting for sanctions that burdened its economy, to be lifted, but Iran cannot bypass Russia because it is its blind, especially in Syria.
Iran is aware that the margin of movement inside Syria is governed by several factors related to the influence they share with Turkey, the Americans, the Syrian opposition, and of course the “terrorist organizations.” No matter how Tehran tries to pressure towards expanding its control, it cannot cross the red lines agreed upon between Moscow and Israel, which does not relinquish any occasion but incurs heavy losses on Iran and its militias, the latest of which is the killing of two figures from the “Iranian Revolutionary Guards.”
Perhaps targeting Erbil is a double message first to the Iranian interior in terms of restoring the prestige of this Iranian faction and secondly to show Iran’s strength in rapid deterrence. But it is certain that Iran is not ready to escalate at a time when it was “close to the corner” of reaching an agreement with the United States.