| 3 December 2022, Saturday |

Israeli war on Lebanon is ruled out for the following reasons

The Israeli threats to strike Lebanon, in conjunction with the arrival of the American mediator for the demarcation of the border, Amos Hochstein in Beirut, drew more than one foreign ambassador in Beirut, but it was noted that the official Lebanon had no comment on the matter.

However, diplomatic sources made it clear to “Sawt Beirut International” that it is unlikely that a war will take place at this stage between Israel and Lebanon or Israel and Hezbollah.

For many reasons, especially those related to the fact that the battlefield between Israel, Iran and Iran’s ally, until further notice, will remain Syrian territory. Where the weekly bombing of targets for both parties. The Iranian arena also remains in its own right, where the most dangerous scientists of the Iranian nuclear program and experts on Iranian missiles and drones have been targeted. Therefore, Israel has no desire to launch a war at the present time, and it is carrying out its own targeting without exposing its cities and citizens to strikes.

Israel is a metaphor for an army with a state, and any progress in the field of security in any hostile state will not allow it. But its recent threats come as a response to the threats of the Secretary-General of “Hezbollah”, which were clear if it continued its provocations against Lebanon. Therefore, war is excluded, and all parties concerned with the situation in the south and the sharing of the sea and the natural resources in it are still performing their media and security roles under the roof of the equation that governs this situation, which is Resolution 1701.

The other reason for Israel to raise the ceiling of its threats, according to the sources, is to put pressure on Lebanon to resort to concessions in negotiating the demarcation of the borders, in light of the presence of Hochstein in Lebanon and its renewed emphasis on the American proposal. And the request to Lebanon not to stand as a stumbling block in the process of demarcation, as this is a direct and effective benefit to it. Israel often follows the principle that intensifying security pressures is a pressing factor in negotiations to gain more, and attempts to influence Lebanon’s position to weaken it in the negotiation process.

In the period preceding the extension of the mandate of the international force operating in the south according to Resolution 1701 “UNIFIL”, Israel usually resorts to escalation to strain the atmosphere in the south, hoping to put more pressure on the American and French positions in the Security Council when negotiating the draft resolution to extend the force, which is usually considered in The month of August.

As Israel began its pressure weeks ago, trying to pass through negotiations on the new decision to extend the ideas related to being strict in carrying out its duties, especially monitoring the spread of “Hezbollah” weapons in the region, and their movements.

It is unlikely that there will be a war because all parties are well aware of it and its cost. However, it is certain that seeking to stir up the atmosphere without slipping into real dangers that Lebanon must be prepared for.

  • Sawt Beirut International