| 28 February 2024, Wednesday |

Khomeini’s Republic and the downward course

The dream of the Founder of the Islamic Republic of Iran Ayatollah Khomeini, under the principle of “Wilayat al-Faqih” began to weaken, although he dreamed of leading the Islamic world.

With the return of Ayatollah Khomeini to Tehran from France to govern Iran starting in April 1979, he worked to consolidate his legacy and dream by putting it in a constitutional text, perhaps the most prominent of which was the necessity of “exporting the Islamic revolution” and obligating the president to be a believer of the “Jaafari doctrine” and was confirmed by Article 121 which obligates him to perform the following oath: “I swear to be the protector of the official doctrine of the country.”

During his rule, Khomeini was able to export the revolution in which he believed by spreading his ideology in several countries, trying to root his idea until he moved to military action by establishing brigades and teams loyal to his “revolution.” He was able to brag about his control 4 countries, starting with Iraq, all the way to Syria, Lebanon and Yemen through Houthis.

Khomeini was able to expand significantly until he established himself as a player on the international scene that could not be bypassed, as he now controls the joints of many countries through his militarily deployed arms under various pretexts, including members in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Iraq, and of course the most prominent of them is Hezbollah, which left Lebanon to Syria first in defense of religious shrines. Then the titles changed, and the defense of Lebanon became from attacks and the spread of ISIS across the borders.

The war on “ISIS” has ended, however, the basic project of the Islamic Republic has become exposed through its continued support for the factions that watched over their strengthening and began to impose their conditions on the internal arenas of these countries, but now “zeroes” began to be placed on their projects on the day Muqtada al-Sadr issued the electoral scene.

As for Yemen, the stones of the Yemeni governorate directorates have begun to fall from the hands of the Houthis. In Syria, the scene does not look better and perhaps the most dangerous, as it was forced to withdraw thousands of its members to remedy the situation that has developed in Afghanistan after the American withdrawal and the Taliban’s control, and the fear of Sunni extremism is hitting its borders.

At the same time suffering From the Russians’ attempt to trim their presence inside Syria, the only foothold for the Russian bear in the Middle East, where it built the most important and largest military base “Hmeimim” and then moved to “Al-Qamishli” where it established another base, it began working on modernizing it and providing it with an advanced weapons system, and it exploits the fear of the “Syrian Democratic Forces” (SDF) from the American withdrawal from Syria to expand further, in addition to keeping silent or turning a blind eye to the Israeli strikes on the centers and warehouses of Iran and its militias.

As for Lebanon, which remained the most solid position for Tehran and the strongest card that it still holds, it now began to lose its ability to control the joints of the state as in the past, after the barrier of fear of the “armed party” was broken and its pretext was to resist the Israeli enemy until the liberation of Palestine, Shebaa Farms and the Kfar Shuba hills after Its Secretary-General, Hassan Nasrallah, escalated the tone of his threats towards the Lebanese interior, the last of which was when he announced the list of his members ready to intervene in any internal confrontation. But Nasrallah returned to correct his words, and this matter indicates the weakness and vibration that he is experiencing, waiting for the outcome of the “Vienna” negotiations, which are just around the corner, from the explosion.

Perhaps the words of the American envoy to Iran, Robert Malley, were most prominent by saying, “We have seen Tehran become more aggressive in its regional activities,” considering that they “miscalculate and play with fire,” stressing that Iran exceeded in November 2021 all the restrictions imposed by the 2015 agreement, pointing out that “soon there will be an attempt to revive the agreement as an attempt to revive a dead body.”

In conjunction with all these statements, Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid stressed a few days ago that, if necessary, they will act alone because they will not allow Iran to become a “nuclear threshold state.” This matter has become alarming while awaiting the latest results of the Vienna negotiations, which Iran is trying to delay at a time when it is close to producing a nuclear bomb. Will the confrontation take place between Iran and Israel, and where will it be staged?

  • Sawt Beirut International