Lebanon is at a crossroads in terms of forthcoming entitlements at both the international and domestic level. Internally, the government is being disrupted by a suffocating economic crisis, a governmental crisis, and a Lebanese-Gulf diplomatic conflict.
And because Hezbollah aspired to link Lebanon to Iran and functioned as the finalist, a country like Lebanon could not help but be touched by regional trends and events taking place at the level of the nuclear file and its ramifications on the Lebanese domestic affairs.
“There are crucial decisions and files awaiting settlement,” security sources told Sawt Beirut International, “and this requires internal popular cohesion in order to combine ranks, but this matter is particularly difficult owing to the strong difference between the political parties.”
In light of these developments, security sources fear that the settlements that lead to solutions will not be incomplete, which means that Lebanon could enter into difficult-to-control security tensions, especially if the Iranian axis believes that the upcoming parliamentary elections will not be in its interests, and will then resort to security solutions.
According to security sources, there are conflicting indications, based on intelligence from Western countries, that the situation in Lebanon is very concerning, and that any unfavorable political spark might ignite the country.
The sources emphasized that if the army had not intervened decisively in Tayouneh, things would have devolved into disaster, but the army’s decision is clear, which is not to allow the security situation to deteriorate for any reason, but who guarantees that things will not escape in other areas that are difficult for security forces to control? They are suffering from an economic condition that will escalate to violence if the government does not act to salvage what is left.
On the Iranian level, the source claims that the two delegations that recently visited Tehran influenced a hardening of attitudes toward Lebanon, and that what was needed was to re-ignite the situation in Iraq through the assassination of Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi, but international support and domestic Iraqi cohesion prevented this. In Lebanon, the situation is radically different, and Iran can easily disrupt security through Hezbollah or exploit the southern gate to ignite the front with Israel and use Lebanon as a bargaining chip in nuclear negotiations.