Whoever monitors the electoral scene is destined to live in the approaching May for the Lebanese people, as it is still cloudy and has escalated in intensity with several candidates stating their unwillingness to participate.
Because the number of seats in Kesrouan, the Maronite Areen, is completely Maronite, it has been a certainty that the “Free Patriotic Movement” will get the first blow from there after winning the five seats in 2005. The removal from its bloc, however, delivered a damage to the number of members of the “Strong Lebanon Bloc,” which was used by former Minister Gebran Bassil to battle the rest of the Christian components on the basis that he represented the largest Christian bloc.
Today, the concern of losing another seat looms on the horizon of the Baabda district, which has six seats, three for Maronites, two for Shiites, and two for Druze. According to Sawt Beirut International’s special sources, there is a Syrian injunction to gather allies in one grouping to support the “movement” in order to limit its losses, beginning with the Hezbollah who works in this direction out of fear of losing the Christian cover that the “Aounists” secured for him when they formed the largest bloc.
As for the other parties, everyone will follow the same path, incluing the “Syrian Social Nationalist Party” and the “Democratic Party”. Thus, their compatibility will be determined by the relationship’s ebb and flow. Will the party be able to rally them behind the “movement”?
As for the axis of what was called March 14, the understanding between the “Lebanese Forces” and the National Liberal Party, of course, the “Progressive Socialist Party” is considered a natural matter, it remains whether the two Shiite seats will be nominated for candidates to fill them, or the Druze leader will work to not confront the “Shiite duo” and not Recommending the nomination of any Shiite to leave a seat for the exchange of some votes, and this matter will depend on the coming days.
It should be noted that the battle will be the most difficult on the Christian level due to the fragmentation of the Christian voice, though the strongest bloc will be the one that brings together the “forces” and “the Liberals,” with the “movement” coming in second place after the decline it experienced in 2018.
Therefore, it is possible to draw the conclusion that the movement’s risk of losing another seat in Baabda may be the bitter cup that the movement will drink in the upcoming elections, with data indicating that a portion of the Dahiyeh Shiites region will emerge from the mantle of “the duo,” even if they only constitute a proportionate weight. It will pave the path for an end to unilateralism.