| 20 May 2024, Monday |

Will Israel’s threats against Iran lead to military strike in the near future?

With the US-Iran talks stalled and no substantial progress made in terms of Iran’s approval of a return to the nuclear deal struck in 2015, Israel resumed threatening to strike Iran, but no one knows how or when these actions will be taken, according to well-informed diplomatic source.

According to the sources, any Israeli military strategy of this kind will first assess the Iranian response, as well as the locations of that response, including whether or not it will involve nations in the area where Iran’s allies are stationed. Any Israeli strike would thereafter require American support. With the exclusion of sources, this strike seems imminent. It also requires the presence of US warships and ships in the region.

Even Moscow believes that the longer the return to the accord is postponed, the higher the chance of Iran developing nuclear weapons capability. According to sources, the Russians have supported speeding up the negotiations, while Washington has shown enormous enthusiasm and assistance in dragging it back to a deal.

However, the major question raised by the sources is why do the major countries not seek a solution to Iran’s regional influence in parallel with negotiations, and is this related to continuing the path of intimidating Arabs into joining the American ranks, and that talking about influence is necessary to satisfy public opinion. In this context, the sources disclose that the most important thing for Washington and Moscow is to re-sign the nuclear deal, because the nuclear bomb poses a threat to Israel’s survival, which neither the US nor Russia can stand. In terms of Iranian influence, it is neither a large nor a pressing concern.

As a result, it has yet to be translated on the ground. Indeed, preventing Iranian nuclear weapons is in Israel’s security interests. Except in one situation, when the world community is certain that Israel is in grave danger, neither Washington nor Moscow nor Europe will initiate a war against Iran. On this issue, there is a convergence of US and Russian interests, which is a top priority for both countries. This is a red line on the world stage.

Parallel to the discussions, the US and Europe are attempting to curb Iran’s influence. Including Israeli operations in Syria against Iran and “Hezbollah,” as well as sanctions against Iran’s regional allies, particularly the party. And Israel’s strikes in Syria might constitute the actual battle against Iran, with no deterrence, no price, and no other option. Regardless of the possibilities of securing a new nuclear deal in the Vienna talks, it appears that these activities in the Iranian and Syrian depths will continue.

Syria was also requested to distance itself from Iran and Hezbollah in exchange for re-entry into the Arab League via a Gulf Arab state. However, the sources simply rule this out. On the Arab and international levels, the Lebanese authorities were requested to separate Hezbollah’s influence from Lebanese political life. Is there any way for such a request?

  • Sawt Beirut International