Will the Parliamentary elections be held next spring? The question may have more than one answer, especially that the vision is still vague and ambiguous. But it has become almost certain that the elections cannot be held on March 27th, as the parliament recommended.
The Free Patriotic Movement’s (FPM) appeal to the Constitutional Council delayed the start of the logistical measures, and Hezbollah does not want to annoy his main ally, the FPM, which does not seem ready to face the parliamentary battle at the end of March. So, all signs indicate that the elections will not be held in March, but rather in May? This depends on one thing: the popular position of the FPM. If the FPM and its main ally, Hezbollah found that the movement will not be able to secure the number required to obtain a parliamentary majority, the elections will be canceled for a thousand reasons.
All the data indicate that the FPM and Hezbollah prefer to contest the Presidential elections in this council rather than in another council. It is enough that this council consider Gebran Bassil a strong Christian, as the Parliamentary elections in 2018 have confirmed the movement’s popularity over the Lebanese Forces’ popularity for many reasons, most notably that the covenant was still in its infancy, which allowed him to forge wide alliances with various political forces.
Today, the reality has changed. According to opinion polls, the Lebanese Forces have become the most popular force, because the FPM disappointed the public opinion with its performance in power.
Accordingly, the parliamentary entitlement for the year 2022 may be in jeopardy. Will the parliamentary vacuum start from next spring? Will the aforementioned vacuum expand to become a presidential vacuum in the fall?
Between the coming spring and autumn, we will be in a decisive phase on the Lebanese, regional and international levels. So let us hope that this phase will not be politically filled with storms, disasters, and perhaps earthquakes!