The candidacy door to Lebanon’s Parliamentary elections ends at midnight, after which the stage of forming lists begins, based on alliances.
Alliances include what is announced, such as the three-way alliance of Amal, Hezbollah, and the Free Patriotic Movement, and with them the Syrian Social Nationalist Party in some constituencies, and an alliance that has not yet been completed between the Socialist Progressive party and the Lebanese Forces. The alliances of each of the Marada movement, Kataeb party, and independent figures, as well as civil society groups are still unclear.
The most prominent ambiguity remains within the Sunni community, especially after the reluctance to run for candidacy extended to include all members of the Former Prime Minister Club starting from Tammam Salam and Saad Hariri to Najib Mikati and Fouad Siniora, along with the Future Movement’s boycott.
There is no doubt that the withdrawal of these people will have an impact on the electoral scene across Lebanon. In Tripoli district, Minieh al-Dinniyeh, for instance, there is no doubt that the withdrawal of traditional names, such as Mikati, Safadi, Jisr and Kabara, will impose new conditions on the electoral battle, and those who aspire to change will have a great impact.
It is true that in Tripoli today, a large percentage doesn’t care about the elections and is concerned with the living and social situation, but it is also certain that this group can be awakened at any moment and with a new speech, and the scene of Al-Nour Square on October 17 that brought together all segments of Tripolitania society is the best evidence.
This analysis may have prompted Mikati not to run for candidacy, because he realizes that the battle this time requires a high-ceilinged, clear and direct political discourse, which Mikati, who is known for his moderation, does not want.
Mikati, on the other hand, is preparing to nominate a number of names that may not be limited to the Alawi, the Orthodox, and the Sunni, to reach the formation of a bloc with balanced Sunni representation, with the aim of establishing his Sunni leadership to become a natural candidate to head the government that will follow the parliamentary elections.
There is a crisis of confidence between him and the Sunni candidates such as Sami Fatfat, Mustafa Alloush and Kareem Muhammad Kabbara for these reasons. Therefore, a single list may not bring them together unless MP Muhammad Kabbara manages to persuade his son to ally with Mikati.