A disintegrating Lebanon faces a collapse at the level of the presidential vacancy. The calendar of Michel Aoun’s period has just twenty days to be replaced by the calendar of another era. October 13th has become yet another artificial date for the election of a President of the Republic.
There will be no third scene in a scene from two. Either a quorum does not exist and the session fails, or a quorum does not result in an election. In 2014, approximately a month before Aoun’s predecessor, Michel Sleiman, concluded his tenure, the parliament conducted a session to pick a new president of the republic, but none of the contenders received two-thirds of the votes necessary.
Following that, the country witnessed a two-year void, during which Parliament was unable to conduct a second session due to a lack of quorum. The lesson, therefore, is not in conducting the sessions, but in an united judgment given by the state that it can govern itself without outside intervention.
Many assurances have been given that President Michel Aoun will leave the First Presidential Palace. However, the obsession with obstructing the formation of a new government by the impossible conditions of his current regime, as described by observers, raises more than a question mark about the possibility of preparing for a scenario that violates the constitution by striking the powers of the caretaker government and not recognizing it.
The route to the presidential palace once President Aoun’s term ends is not paved with political agreement this time, making any compromise between the regime’s components difficult. In a country where rulers have not yet taken use of the option to govern themselves, the route to a presidential vacuum and constitutional bidding is the most plausible prospect.