| 22 February 2024, Thursday |

Two scenarios for the dollar exchange rate path after lifting subsidies

The new Minister of Economy, Amin Salam, made two promises, while assuming the duties of the Ministry of Economy and Trade, which are the financing card to alleviate, as much as possible, the burden of what is expected, especially at the level of lifting fuel subsidies. As for the second promise, it is to protect the consumer from fraud, exorbitant prices, monopoly and manipulation of the quality and quality of life materials.

During the handover ceremony at the Ministry of Finance, Minister Youssef Khalil confirmed that it is a historic moment in Lebanon and a fateful moment, either we fail or we succeed in correcting the situation and restructuring it.” $295 million and moving it needs a decision by the House of Representatives.” He revealed that the new minister will sign the criminal audit contract with Alvarez & Marcel within two days.

In the Ministry of Industry, Minister George Puchikian affirmed that there is no return to the pattern of excessive importation, which sabotaged public finances and threatened the industry and its future.

The course of the dollar exchange rate on the black market will be determined after the lifting of fuel subsidies in the coming days, according to the mechanism that will be agreed upon for imports. Since the market needs 10 million dollars a day in fuel, the source of securing this cash is what will determine the course of the dollar’s exchange rate on the black market.

The first scenario assumes that the Banque du Liban will continue to secure the dollars required to import fuels at the unsubsidized price, meaning that the petrol stations and importers are responsible for securing the amounts in Lebanese pounds in return for the Banque du Liban providing the dollars to import again from abroad according to the daily exchange rate by using the SDR funds in The International Monetary Fund, which will be deposited into his account within two days. According to this scenario, the pressure on the exchange rate in the market will not increase because the demand for the dollar will not rise by traders, while the cash liquidity in lira will be absorbed in larger quantities due to the increase in the price of fuel, which may limit the impact of pumping additional liquidity in lira into the market in the event that a bank decides Lebanon amended the exchange rate for bank withdrawals and raised it to 6000 or 7000 pounds at the end of this month.

As for the second scenario, which may lead to a dramatic rise in the dollar exchange rate on the black market, it is that the estera will be liberated, meaning that the Banque du Liban will leave the matter to the importing companies to bear the responsibility of securing import dollars from the black market. Faced with this option, the demand for the dollar in the market will increase at a rate of 10 million dollars per day, which will lead to a rapid collapse in the exchange rate of the Lebanese pound, in light of the decline in supply, especially since the trend tends to pay the cost of the financing card in pounds and not in dollars, and therefore there will be no new pumping For dollars in the market, neither by tourists nor expatriates, not even by money from loans and international aid.

  • Sawt Beirut International