Former leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s lead over far-right incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro has tightened somewhat, to 11 percentage points from 14 two weeks ago, a new poll showed on Wednesday.
The survey found that 41% of voters would back Lula and 30% would vote for Bolsonaro if the October election was held today, compared to a 42-28 difference in the previous poll by PoderData, a division of digital journal Poder360.
In a run-off between the two men, neither of whom have formally declared his candidacy, Lula would win by 54% to 37%, a 17-point advantage that has narrowed from 22 points two weeks ago.
Lula has slipped because he is the front-runner and his rivals are all gunning for him, said risk consultant Andre Cesar of Hold Legislative Advisors. “He is more exposed and adversaries are attacking his Workers Party record in office,” Cesar said.
Bolsonaro has become more populist as the election approaches, setting aside fiscal discipline concerns and promising to bring down high fuel costs that he has blamed on Lula’s 2003-2010 presidency.
Former judge Sergio Moro, running on an anti-corruption platform, has lost ground and now draws the same 7% of voter support as center-leftist Ciro Gomes, the poll found.
Lula does better among women, lower-income voters, university-educated Brazilians and in the poorer Northeast of Brazil, where he was born, according to the poll.
The telephone poll surveyed 3,000 people on Monday and Tuesday and has a margin of error of 2 percentage points.