The International Federation of Pharmaceutical Manufactures & Associations said there will be enough Cocid-19 vaccine doses produced by January 2022 for every adult in the world to be inoculated.

Based on modelling provided by science intelligence firm Airfinity, the association said 12 billion shots are likely to be produced by the end of 2021 and — assuming no bottlenecks – around 24 billion by June 2022.

The latter figure may mean supply would outstrip global demand, said the association’s director general, Thomas Cueni. He added that vaccine manufactures are currently producing 1.5 billion doses a month.

Speaking alongside senior figures in the pharmaceutical world, Ceuni said “the news should be a game changer for vaccine equity”.

“We cannot be insensitive to the fact that so far, only about 6 per cent of Africa’s adult population have received full vaccination, whereas in many of the western countries, we are at 70 percent plus.”

He said that, even on the basis of the most conservative projections, G7 countries would have 1.2 billion surplus doses this year even if they vaccinate those over the age of 12 and give booster shots to at-risk people.

“Now if these 1.2 billion doses are shared before the end of this year, it would mark a turning point in vaccine distribution and open the way to reset for vaccine equity.”

Albert Bourla, chairman and chief executive of Pfizer, said that next year, there should be enough vaccines for all those who want one, but a key problem will be vaccine hesitancy.

He said that in some countries, such as those in Africa, the percentage of the population that is hesitant to receive a vaccine is likely to be higher than in western countries.