OPEC’s shares of India’s oil imports decreased at the fastest rate in 2022–2023 to the lowest level in at least 22 years. This year, the big producers’ share may even further decline, according to statistics gathered from industry sources.
According to a Reuters analysis of statistics going back to 2001/02, members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), primarily from the Middle East and Africa, saw their share of India’s oil market decline to 59% in the fiscal year to March 2023 from roughly 72% in 2021/22.
Russia overtook Iraq for the first time to emerge as the top oil supplier to India, pushing Saudi Arabia down to No. 3 in the last fiscal year, the data showed.
OPEC’s share shrank as India, which in the past rarely bought Russian oil due to high freight costs, is now the top oil client for Russian seaborne oil, rejected by Western nations following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
India shipped in about 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian oil in 2022/23, the data showed, about 23% of its overall 4.65 million bpd imports.
The decision by OPEC and their allies, a group known as OPEC+ to cut production in May could further squeeze OPEC’s share in India, the world’s third largest oil importer, later this year if Russian supplies stay elevated.
“Russian crude is already cheaper than the similar Middle Eastern grades and it seems OPEC is harming itself by a reduction in output,” said Refinitiv analyst Ehsan Ul Haq.
“It will further erode its market share in Asia.”
Higher intake of Russian oil boosted the share of Commonwealth of Independent States (C.I.S.) countries to a record 26.3%, and reduced that of Middle Eastern and African nations to a 22-year low of 55% and 7.6%, respectively.
In 2021/22, Middle East’s share was 64% while Africa’s was 13.4%, the data showed. Latin America’s share declined to a 15-year low of 4.9% in 2022/23.
India’s oil imports in 2022/23 rose 9% from a year earlier, as state refiners cranked up runs to meet rising local fuel demand after private refiners turned to exports instead of selling fuel at below-market rates domestically, the data showed.
Local refiners together processed about 6% more crude in 2022/23 at about 5.13 million bpd, government data show.
In March, India shipped in nearly 5 million bpd of oil, marginally higher than the previous month, with Russian oil accounting for about 36% of overall imports, the data showed.
“OPEC’s output cut decision is helping Russia as well,” said Haq, adding the planned supply cut has lifted global oil prices and at the same time narrowed the discounts for Russian oil against Brent and Dubai benchmarks.
Some Russian cargoes are being priced above $60 a barrel – a cap imposed by the Group of Seven nations, European Union and Australia to curb Moscow’s revenues while allowing traders to access western ships and insurance.