| 4 March 2024, Monday |

Dollar drops to 3-month low, heading for biggest monthly fall in a year

Tuesday saw the U.S. dollar fall to a three-month low as investors maintained their belief that the world’s largest economy is beginning to slow down after an aggressive cycle of tightening that began in March of last year.

The Federal Reserve should start easing sometime in the upcoming year as a result of that slowdown. According to the CME’s FedWatch tool, U.S. rate futures were pricing in a 23% possibility of a rate cut in March, rising to a nearly 50% probability in May.

The dollar index , which measures its value against six major currencies, fell as far as 102.89, the lowest since Aug. 31. It was last down 0.1% at 103.02. The index is on track for a loss of more than 3% in November, its worst performance since November 2022.

“For several decades now, the dollar has tended to outperform when the U.S. economy is extremely weak or extremely strong relative to the rest of the world, and has typically fallen during circumstances resembling those now in play – when most major economies are simply muddling through, and growth gaps (between the U.S. and the rest of the world) are narrowing,” said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay in Toronto.

  • Reuters