With feared pandemic loan losses failing to materialize, most big U.S. banks are expected to report a stunning rebound in quarterly profits next week even as trading income slumps and lending revenue stalls on low interest rates and weak demand.
Among them, Bank of America Corp, Citigroup Inc and JPMorgan Chase & Co, the country’s three largest banks, will more than double their second-quarter profits, according to analyst estimates compiled by Refinitiv.
Wells Fargo & Co, the fourth-largest U.S. lender, is expected to get back into the black for the second quarter after last year posting its first loss since 2008.
A year ago, the country’s largest four banks booked $33 billion combined to cover expected loan losses as millions of Americans struggled financially amid pandemic lockdowns.
Together, Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan and Wells Fargo are expected to report $24 billion in second-quarter profits compared with $6 billion last year, the analyst estimates show.
“Normalization is playing out,” said analyst Jeff Harte of Piper Sandler. “We’re getting there.”
Goldman Sachs Group Inc and JPMorgan will be the first big banks to report this quarter when they unveil their results on Tuesday, July 13.
Generally, they expect a slump in core businesses amid low interest rates and lack of loan growth, particularly on credit cards which many Americans, who reduced spending amid lockdowns, were able to pay off with help from stimulus checks.
Trading revenue, which soared across Wall Street last year due to wild volatility, is also expected to fall.
At JPMorgan, for example, pre-provision second-quarter earnings will be down about 20% on the year-ago period, according to estimates by Chris Kotowski of Oppenheimer.