| 20 April 2024, Saturday |

After the apology, four potential courses

One of four potential courses could be tracked, after Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s apology for forming the government. According to what diplomatic sources, accompanied the formation efforts, has told “Sawt Beirut International. The four courses are:

– The possibility of a classic course, i.e. setting an appointment for mandatory parliamentary consultations, and he who will have votes’ majority, will be assigned.

– The possibility of other parties’ solidarity with Hariri’s stance, by not naming anyone, or securing cover.

– In case no outcome is reached through the two mentioned tracks, re-floating the resigned government of President Hassan Diab, can be expected, where advantage can be taken of the International stances that demanded the aforementioned, in case of forming failure, especially at the final stage, in order for this government to hold parliamentary elections next spring. .

– As for the fourth track, which cannot be overlooked, is for the Diab government to declare a state of emergency. The question remains, is it really entitled of doing this?
This is on the internal level, as on the Arab and international levels, vigorous attempts have been made without achieving any results. Internationally, there is humanitarian concern, from both the French and the Vatican, as well as the Americans, and all through the army and civil society. Paris proposed the idea of ​​sending an organized French security group to supervise the distribution of aid, and to accompany it but it was met with opposition.

In case of internal chaos, there is always the resorting to the Security Council.  There is the scenario of the Lebanese requesting the Council to pay more attention to Lebanon, and for the “UNIFIL” to play its role in providing aid to the people. And any new role for this force, will require a Russian-Chinese consensus, because of the risk that Moscow and Beijing will not agree on such a proposal.

There is also another scenario of a direct guardianship of the UN Security Council over Lebanon, on the basis that Lebanon has become a failed state, and this council is supposed to declare its guardianship over it, but that is not an easy thing.

And there is the French invented scenario, the one it used in an African country, the Inventor is the former foreign minister, Bernard kouchner, which is the “humanitarian intervention duty”, to protect people facing immense danger. Through this invention, a country is entitled of interfering in another country without a Security Council resolution, and it sends its troops. Famine reason could be a motivation for such an intervention. But the sources doubt a Lebanese acceptance of a multinational force, even for humanitarian cause.

But there is always hope for an understanding about a neutral figure, and consultations to form a neutral government, or else Lebanon will be facing the Unknown. And through what happened, the sources assert that there will be no winning team. It points out that it is difficult for the Lebanese to continue to accept the officials’ “patchwork” measures in their daily life, so they will keep on obstructing.