| 24 July 2024, Wednesday |

Can the ambiguous external phase produce a president in Lebanon?

The major countries began to make inquiries from Lebanese officials, and through diplomatic channels, about the Lebanese preparations for the presidential elections. Even her inquiries affect the names put forward and others not raised in public. But the question is, will Lebanon become an international priority, starting with the presidential elections?

Diplomatic sources in an important capital confirm to “Sawt Beirut International” that so far, despite Arab and international concerns about the expected Lebanese situation and its relationship to the presidential election, Lebanon is not an international priority. It is a priority only for France, but it is not so for the rest of the Europeans, and for the Americans, for the latter two sides, the priority is the war on Ukraine.

The sources say that there are also two issues that show that there is no major impetus for this entitlement, namely: On the internal level, there is a sharpening in the positions between the opposition and the loyalists, but nothing substantial has been done. At the external level, especially at the international-regional level, there is no confrontation, but at the same time, there is no real understanding.

Things are not clear. While the presidential elections need balances, especially as they need an overwhelming majority, especially at the internal level. The existence of indecisive balances is another matter. When there is no internal consensus, this entitlement still requires an external orientation and insinuations from abroad. Externally, there is interest in the issues of Iran, oil and gas, and Lebanon cannot elect a president without the consent of all parties.

It is certain, according to the sources, that Lebanon has a likely bloc, but the question is whether things will be done with an external consensus and within the framework of Lebanon remaining without violence, or is Lebanon left to its destiny? Sources do not believe that Lebanon is abandoned. In the area around him, there is no desire for confrontation. When the US administration encourages Iraq and France to boost bilateral relations, encourages the resumption of Saudi-Iranian-Turkish contact, and encourages calm in the Yemeni file.

All files tend towards cooling, but without clear results, which means that there is no major decision to resort to escalation, but without a final desire to reach a result. It is a course of appeasement that is not certain that it will lead to a regional understanding during the constitutional period during which Lebanon must elect a President of the Republic. In addition, there are upcoming parliamentary elections in Israel, after which a new government is expected. The entire region is in a transitional phase, while Lebanon is going through a phase of constitutional deadlines and deadlines.

It is clear, according to the sources, that there is no confrontation in the region except for the Israeli unknown, where it was recorded during the visit of US President Joe Biden ten days ago that there is no agreement between the two parties regarding the Iranian file, as Biden says that he guarantees that Iran will not become nuclear, while Israel is not So assured. Freezing regional and international differences, trying to find solutions and resorting to diplomacy, does not necessarily lead to understandings.

Therefore, according to the sources, it is not inevitable that Lebanon will be able to make its president within the current regional and international calming period. Whereas, the president of the republic must be elected. This climate surrounding Lebanon makes the issue of the presidency ambiguous, because the stage is not confrontational and not pessimistic, but the international and regional uncertainty is not inevitable that it will produce a president… All of this depends on the situation of the international and regional track two months from now.

  • Sawt Beirut International