Lebanon is informed by the American administration and the United Nations of the need to be careful not to let the situation slide into any dangers that would lead to a disastrous war against it.
The Lebanese authorities conveyed these words to Hezbollah in a clear American and international message that Lebanon must distance itself from the ongoing conflict in Gaza and not accept being lured into participating in the war.
Well-informed Western diplomatic sources tell Sawt Beirut International that there is international pressure on all parties in the region to avoid opening new fronts there in parallel with the Gaza front.
The sources noted that Iran’s position, expressed by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, is consistent with international positions, albeit indirectly. Iran does not want to enter into an open war because that would establish an international-regional war that is indispensable at the current stage. This avoids real war on all fronts, even if it allows some reactions.
In this, it meets with the major powers about the inability of any international or regional party to engage in two wars at the same time. Also, the major countries do not want to waste time on the situation in the Middle East at a time when the American and European focus is on Ukraine. Also, no international or regional party will bear the rise in global oil prices in the event of a large-scale war that is not limited in time.
The sources indicate that Israel currently wants some profit to stop its war, and it is still searching for the location of this profit and how to obtain it so that it can confront its audience. It is looking for a way to turn a victory into reality. However, the sources say that turning a blind eye to Iran’s attack on Gaza in this way may not amount to selling Hamas’ head at this time, because ending Hamas requires an air and ground war for more than days, and it may even take weeks or months. Such a case will not be easy.
According to Hezbollah’s position, which of course reflects an Iranian orientation, the performance in the south between it and Israel is still among the rules of engagement. Israel has no interest in going towards two wars together. The party will not be able to achieve an achievement in any war it is fighting now that exceeds the achievement achieved by Hamas at the beginning of the war in Gaza, because Israel has made its preparations on the northern border.
Then, the reason for the diminishing chances of the party carrying out a major operation from the south is that it does not enjoy national unity, and all internal parties warned it of the consequences of participating and involving Lebanon in additional wars. What is happening in southern Lebanon towards the Israeli north are limited attempts to distract Israel in this region and relieve its tension regarding Gaza. There will be no change to the rules of the game on the border.
In any future negotiations between Washington and Iran, according to the sources, Iran will seek a price for its position and seek to neutralize its organizations in the region from what is happening in Gaza, and the upcoming developments will indicate whether there are new settlements in the outstanding issues based on the data imposed by this war, or whether the status quo will continue for a long time.