| 6 December 2023, Wednesday |

Is there a moment for a US-Iranian intersection over Gaza to elect a president?

In the stage of playing on the edge of the abyss and the international and Arab pressures to prevent the expansion of the war and to find a solution to the fate of Gaza, diplomatic sources with extensive knowledge of international communications around the region do not rule out that, in the midst of this, what Lebanon is preparing for is a settlement of its basic entitlement and the ensuing entitlements that will lead to the reconstitution of authority. The gains that will be reflected in his situation as a result of not participating in the expansion of the war will be inevitable, but this does not mean that the gains will be limited to the Lebanese file, but they may be limited to the Yemeni or Syrian file as well. Gains in any arena where Iran has strong influence.

Once the solutions to the Gaza issue begin, the Lebanese will wake up, according to the sources, to the existence of a political dynamic of lightning solutions that establish an integrated internal settlement, without realizing it, within a few weeks after the New Year. This dynamic could emerge after or during the end of the war in Gaza. Without the sources revealing “Sawt Beirut International” the account of the continued danger facing Lebanon as a result of the escalation. According to this dynamic, new names will be proposed, or the presidential trend will be confirmed towards the arrival of candidate Suleiman Franjieh to the presidency.

Therefore, the sources do not rule out that the gains will crystallize to establish a certain political reality in the country, just as they established a new reality after the July 2006 war, where after every war there is a winner and a loser, regardless of the destruction, killing, and displacement. This loss and gain will be “anchored” in politics, and there are direct or mediated Western contacts with Iran, and these contacts will not only reflect on the fate of Gaza, but also affect the Lebanese file. It is not unlikely that the American-Iranian intersection over the Gaza issue will provide the appropriate timing for other solutions in the region, as these solutions require the conditions of such an intersection and not the continued existence of a contradiction.

In 2016, after the signing of the nuclear agreement under former President Barack Obama, American-Iranian interests intersected over the Lebanese presidential file and Michel Aoun was elected. After Gaza, the same thing will happen, an intersection of interests that will usher in a new phase in the country, especially the arrival of figures far from corruption and from outside the traditional political club.

Or two things will happen: Either Hezbollah convinces both the Druze leader Walid Jumblatt and the head of the Aounist movement, Gebran Bassil, with its candidate, Suleiman Franjieh, and collects the parliamentary votes to formulate this option, i.e. 51 votes that Hezbollah relies on, along with the votes of Jumblatt, Bassil, and a portion of the Sunni votes, or Jumblatt and Bassil convince Hezbollah to resort to a new name.

The most difficult question in this equation is who will be the head of the new government, who will be represented in the settlement, and to what extent Riyadh will be a major party involved in the Lebanese issue again, after the period of unwillingness to continue in the current Lebanese situation, and if it gets involved it wants a clean name.

Therefore, the settlement will affect the presidential and governmental file and all the diplomatic and administrative staff. Then it will not be far from the issue of gas and oil and rearranging the land borders between Lebanon and Israel. Just as happened with regard to the method of understanding regarding maritime demarcation.

The timing of the solution will be surprising to all parties. Some of them began to feel that they could happen, as their positions and movements at the internal level reflected sending signals in this sense. The French will also play an important role in crystallizing the Lebanese solution.


  • Sawt Beirut International