According to Oleksiy Arestovich, an adviser to the Ukrainian president’s chief of staff, the war in Ukraine is likely to end in early May when Russia runs out of resources to attack its neighbor.
Talks between Kyiv and Moscow, in which Arestovich is not personally involved, have yielded only a few humanitarian corridors out of besieged Ukrainian cities.
Arestovich stated in a video released by several Ukrainian media outlets that the exact timing would depend on how much resources the Kremlin was willing to commit to the campaign.
“I think that no later than in May, early May, we should have a peace agreement, maybe much earlier, we will see, I am talking about the latest possible dates,” Arestovich said.
“We are at a fork in the road now: there will either be a peace deal struck very quickly, within a week or two, with troop withdrawal and everything, or there will be an attempt to scrape together some, say, Syrians for a round two and, when we grind them too, an agreement by mid-April or late April.”
A “completely crazy” scenario could also involve Russia sending fresh conscripts after a month of training, he said.
Still, even once peace is agreed, small tactical clashes could remain possible for a year, according to Arestovich, although Ukraine insists on the complete removal of Russian troops from its territory.
The war in Ukraine began on Feb. 24 when Russian President Vladimir Putin launched what he called a “special military operation,” the biggest attack on a European state since World War Two.