| 15 July 2024, Monday |

Lebanon’s path and destiny…up to Iran.

“The path and fate of Lebanon are in limbo when it comes to Iran. This is the current state of Lebanon and its people, as all political, social, and economic issues have taken a backseat to make way for the ‘Battle of Al-Aqsa’ and its repercussions on Lebanon. The anxiety and fear persist that Lebanon might be hit by the fallout of this battle, and its effects become clearer day by day on the southern front. Nevertheless, it is certain that none of the Lebanese political parties, including the Speaker of Parliament, Nabih Berri, and the Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, possess the answer to Lebanon’s fate and its path in this war.

In this context, political sources through “Sawt Beirut International’ consider that the absence of an answer from Lebanese officials is due to Lebanon’s lack of the decision to enter or not enter the war. Currently, its role is limited to waiting for what Iran and Israel may decide regarding us. The sources say, ‘In the end, we are the ones who will pay the price, specifically the Lebanese people, no matter how high the cost is.’ They point out that the Lebanese state has no capability to change the reality, especially since Iran has the exclusive right to instruct all its proxies in the region to intervene in the war, including ‘Hezbollah.’ Therefore, our destiny remains unknown concerning what the coming days may bring.”
When the sources observed that Iran has clearly demonstrated its effective tools in the region, they pointed out that “Hezbollah” has no interest in sacrificing itself and getting involved in a war whose contours are still unclear. Instead, it is waiting for directives from its Iranian reference to decide how to confront, even if its involvement in the war leads to the complete destruction of Lebanon, as it did during the July 2006 war. However, this time, it will not find the same level of financial support and backing as it did during the 2006 war. “Hezbollah” is well aware of the immense damage a war would cause to Lebanon, its people, and particularly its environment. The cost would be substantial. Nevertheless, it cannot defy Iran’s decision.

At the same time, the sources highlight the decision of the “Islamic Jihad” to engage in the confrontation with Israel alongside “Hamas” and “Hezbollah.” “Hezbollah” provides “Al-Quds Brigades,” the military wing of the “Islamic Jihad,” with all the assistance and support it needs as it moves closer to its options. This comes as the new leadership in the “Islamic Jihad” has taken on responsibilities, and the group has opened up to the Syrian regime. Delegations from the “Islamic Jihad” conducted secret visits to Syria, meeting with several intelligence officials there. The sources believe that the group’s proximity to Syria has occurred after the Syrian revolution, and this, in turn, brings “Hamas” closer to Iranian officials.
In response to a question, the sources considered that “Hezbollah,” through coordination with “Hamas” and “Al-Quds Brigades,” is attempting to send a message to the Israelis. The message is that if the latter does not adhere to the rules of engagement, it can introduce the Sunni community and the Palestinians together onto the front lines in southern Lebanon.

The sources emphasized that “Hezbollah” is the biggest beneficiary of “Hamas” and “Islamic Jihad” entering the confrontation in the south. This is especially true as it seeks to obtain Sunni cover for its operations through them.

The sources believe that “Al-Quds Brigades” entering the conflict is meant to provide cover for “Hamas,” whose involvement has been rejected by some Lebanese political parties and forces, particularly as it attempts to use Lebanon as a platform for its operations.

The sources concluded by asserting that if the country is submerged in a war this time, one does not know how or when it will end. Lebanon, as a whole and everyone within it, will be engulfed.

  • Sawt Beirut International