2022 Presidency: Lebanon or Iranstan?
Lebanon is throwing tonight 2021 ahead, in less than five hours. Changing the calendar from year to year has no relevance or importance in political events. This year, though, things are a little different. The year 2022 will be commemorated as the year of exceptional advantages. Parliamentary elections will be held in the country. And then there’s the presidential election. Between the two elections, there’s the stalled government, the postponed investigations in the Beirut port case, and the looming discussions with the International Monetary Fund.
The two elections are the most crucial for the country’s fate and future among all of these big elections. They are the ones who will primarily determine the shape of Lebanon in the future decades. The area is boiling, and Lebanon is on the point of collapse, implying that the moment for settlements, and maybe the formation of new regimes in the region, is approaching. As a result, the two elections this time are crucial and significant, laying the groundwork for the future.
In the next parliament, what will the people’s majority be? Who will be the republic’s next president? If the 2016 presidential elections and the 2018 parliamentary elections provide the desired outcome, Iran and its military-political affiliate in Lebanon, Hezbollah, would finally govern the Lebanese scene.
If the outcome is different, Lebanon will remain resistive to Iranian influence and will not fall into the Wilayat al-Fakih trap. In 2022, which country will be depicted? In other terms, will Lebanon exist or will it switch into Iran?